FACT: 100% of all hard drives will eventually fail. Some will fail prematurely from manufacturers’ defects while others will fail because a mechanical part finally wears out.
The question is, how long until this happens to you?!
Backblaze—a leader in hard drive backups— conducted a comprehensive 4-year study on hard drive failures. Their results were very interesting:
- 92% of all hard drives will survive the first 18 months. These failures come from manufacturers’ defects (oftentimes called the “lemon effect”). Hard drive warranties are typically 1 to 3 years, which is basically the manufacturers saying that they are only on the hook to replace the lemons.
- During the next 18 months, only a very small percentage of drives (~2%) will fail. These failures are from random “unlucky” issues and occur rarely anytime during the life of the drive.
- Beginning in year 3, hard drives start to wear out from usage. Simply put, the drives at this age are getting old. 80% of drives will make it to year 4, but after that, they continue to drop off at a 12% rate.
- The failure rate is essentially a U-curve with most failures very early on or after the 3-year mark.
So, What Does This Mean?
Simple. Back up your data. With a 1-in-10 chance that your hard drive dies in the first 3 years of its life and an accelerating chance of failure after that, there is no excuse for being caught without a solid backup. Ever.
Make a plan. Build equipment replacement into your budget at least every 4 years for most devices, with a 10% equipment-replacement expense built in over the 1st year and then again starting in year 3.
As for that 10-year-old PC in the back room still running Windows XP and your most critical reporting software, the clock is ticking …
